Is located in the southern city of Nice, France "European political forecast laboratory" think tank warned that this year will occur the second quarter of the global systemic crisis has worsened the situation of sovereign debt default and the subsequent formation of the "debt wall" will be with the West lethal conflict in the banking system. In the laboratory the first 42 month forecast report, the think tank said that as countries in 2009, putting in a lot of funds to rescue the market, allowing ease the crisis temporarily, but did not solve the crisis of the institutional issues, these issues will be the first of this year the outbreak of the second quarter. The following features: the sovereignty of countries are unable to repay the critical state, the unemployment rate increased substantially, a large number of unemployment can not be re-employed people will be lost due to extended social relief system, the disintegration of global governance (such as climate talks deadlock, the Sino-US friction intensified, Iraq, Israel, the United States increases the risk of conflict, the global currency war intensified, etc.).

The agency early last year to outline a picture of a bleak future: the international financial crisis through the "outbreak of (sub-prime crisis), increase (affecting the entire financial system), shock (crisis shifted from the financial sector entities in the economic sphere), and clear (economic crisis to deepen and lead to a global recession), "After four stages, from the end of 2009 will enter the fifth stage of more severe:" the disintegration of the world's geo-political system ": the performance of the form of unrest within countries, and even civil war. Announced plans of its new report this scene in the second quarter of this year, full-blown. This "alarmist" predictions with the labs in the past all of the projections, heated controversy.

The report said that the crisis will lead to five major trends: First, the public debt crisis of the bubble will collapse, the result will inevitably lead to the phenomenon of sovereign debt defaults rise; second is that debt defaults countries and have formed the "debt wall" will work with the West the banking system will inevitably produce deadly conflict; three interest rates will inevitably rise; four international tensions led to a sudden increase in hot spots; five social instability increased. Report argues that Europe and the United States national government deliberately to inform the public "crisis was brought under control," or some partial improvement to cover the deterioration of the overall situation. Such as the United States President Barack Obama and vigorously preached that he would "unswervingly to reduce the U.S. Treasury," while actually cite 1.9 trillion U.S. dollars debt, so that the U.S. debt to the astronomical 14.3 trillion U.S. dollars. France also. Meanwhile, the authorities announced that the unemployment rate will "downward trend", on the other hand, as many as one million people were over the period of unemployment assistance will be headache, loss of life are protected. Report, the future of the factors that affect the world economy toward the two main frictions: the eurozone and the U.S. dollar zone, the U.S. dollar and the RMB exchange rate. The report said that if countries continue to conceal the harsh reality outlined by promoting an illusory recovery is much more severe crisis will.

From the report view, all these issues the most fundamental key is the world's financial system on short-term acute shortage of funds and national debt far beyond saving. At present the return of Western developed countries are faced with the debt from 2005 to 2007 the peak period, when the world that there is a "free lunch" and a substantial debt, and today due to insufficient profits (only 2% -5%, far from the estimated year 10%), to be returned when the principal is insolvent. Western developed countries in 2010 to the enterprise from the home until the countries are faced with a huge debt repayment. Of which the main problem is the phenomenon of sovereign debt defaults rise: from 2008, Iceland, Latvia, in 2009, Ireland, Dubai, has been to this year's Greece, have suffered similar problems. The next wave could predict the other hand, is more serious three countries: Japan, the United Kingdom and the United States. These three countries, once a debt default, it will shake the entire world's financial system, and no one country can propose a solution to this.

"Debt wall" for the "European political forecast laboratory" for the experts, is similar to a large "tsunami" rushed into the world financial system. Like 2006 Toshitsugu loan debt, as can be predicted today that the "debt wall" high, has exceeded the real ability to repay these countries will eventually lead to a major crisis. The report analyzes the current U.S. housing situation and concluded that the current economic situation, the United States is likely to occur in the next eight months as high as 500 medium-sized bank failures (as in 2009, when the crisis is only 140 failures) , this crisis is not difficult to see that a great effort. Report that the Fed has not only underestimated the seriousness of the crisis, and the United States is facing mid-term elections, it is no longer possible to save the bank about another large city, so that medium-sized bank failures will likely once again involved in a major Wall Street investment bank.

The gloomy predictions once again caused controversy in France. Following the United States Toffler, Naisbitt and other "optimistic" about the future of school after the Club of Rome in Europe there had been such "pessimistic" about the future of school. Most of Europe's futurology fall into the latter category. In fact, pessimists point of view the impact of people's attention more often. "European political forecast laboratory" inherited the European tradition. But in today's "optimistic about the theory of recovery" is the world's filled with moments, pessimists point of view may be more Xingshi role, it is in the affirmative.

The administration of the Cabazon aperture malls said the backbone of after-Christmas sales took them by surprise.

Buses of tourists and arrangement hunters kept banknote registers campanology Saturday and Sunday, they said. Cars abounding all the approved and abetting parking lots, again overflowed into residential streets.

Both Desert Hills Premium Outlets, with 130 food and the adjacent Cabazon Outlets, with 17 stores, appear Monday that sales for the weekend afterward Christmas were acutely bigger than they were a year ago, if shoppers seemed added agitable about the economy.

Caroline Miner, acreage administrator for Cabazon Outlets, did not accommodate sales figures. But she said the amount of cars entering that mall's parking lots was 40 percent college on Saturday and 98 percent college on Sunday than a year earlier. She said the cartage was "comparable to the weekend afterwards Thanksgiving," the busiest retail date on the calendar.

Miner said shoppers "definitely waited a bit best this year" to absorb their money, allegedly in hopes of accepting the better discounts. She estimated that shoppers were fatigued to the aperture malls because that is area they accepted to see the centermost amount cuts.

Sales at the outlets started to aces up appropriate afore Christmas and accelerated, Miner said. Although chump cartage had lessened on Monday, she said it was still "amazing."

Liz Perkovich, abettor accepted administrator for the Desert Premium Outlets, didn't accept sales or cartage numbers for the weekend but said "compared to endure year there were just cars everywhere." She said on Saturday morning some capital advisers alleged to say they were ashore at the chock-full freeway avenue and would be late.

"When you appear in at 8 a.m. and there is no parking and humans are already ambit around, you apperceive what affectionate of a day it will be," said L.J. Corral, administrator of the William Rast store. Upon accession Saturday morning, Corral said he begin a band of barter cat-and-mouse to get in. One of the attractions, he said, was that the abundance had apparent down all of its artist jeans, consistently priced at about $175, to $99.

Harold Ryder, administrator of UGG boots, addition new abundance at the mall, said the admeasurement of the after-Christmas army of shoppers was "very unexpected. We had a band to get in (to buy the store's contemporary boots) from the moment we opened Saturday until 7:30 at night. ...We had a appealing acceptable day on Sunday, too."

Ryder said he is not assertive about the acumen for the after-Christmas arcade splurge at Authentic UGG boots. He said the abundance had some amount cuts but he aswell saw barter affairs consistently priced merchandise. "I don't apperceive why. I alone apperceive that I am blessed," he said.

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